Home » The Feed » CNN cites Japanese study's findings: A 7.2 magnitude quake in Manila might cause 50,000 deaths

CNN cites Japanese study's findings: A 7.2 magnitude quake in Manila might cause 50,000 deaths

Published: Apr 26, 2010 - 5:31pm

Is Manila ready for a 7.0 earthquake? According to this CNN report posted by the FemaleNetwork.com, we aren't.

Earlier this year, Architect Felino Palafox Jr. submitted a report to the Philippine government with sixty recommendations on how to make Manila earthquake-proof. So far, there has been no response to his proposals. "I think there's so much focus on politics and the elections," he said. "The vulcanologist and geologists in our country tell me that the 'Big One' could happen any time."

The "Big One," a possible 7.0 magnitude earthquake, would be akin to "1,000 Nagasaki atom bomb explosions underneath the Earth's surface along the Marikina Valley Fault," according to Geologist Mahar Lagmay, an associate professor at the National Institute of Geological Sciences at the University of the Philippines in Diliman, Quezon City.

The CNN report also revealed that the Philippine government had allegedly commissioned a study to be undertaken by Japanese experts in 2004.   According to the findings of the said study, a 7.2 magnitude quake could rupture the Marikina Valley Fault, damage 38% of homes and lead to 50,000 deaths in Manila alone. The report went on to state that the "highly sensitive study" was "withheld by the government for four years" and that they could not access the full report yet.

Unfortunately, CNN did not elaborate who the said "Japanese experts" were. They also didn't cite the said experts' affiliations. That being said, the public is only left to chew on the information provided in the report.

Perhaps, CNN was referring to the Metro Manila Earthquake Impact Reduction Study, which likewise highlights a hypothetical 7.2 magnitude quake. Or perhaps not.   Whatever the case may be, it's rather unfortunate that they didn't cite the specific name of the study.

For now, it is more prudent to take the advice Palafox gave in an Inquirer.net article published last February: "We can't wait for another tragedy. We have seen how an unprecedented volume of rainfall like what Ondoy had brought could prove too much for Metro Manila's river and drainage system. We have also seen what a massive earthquake could do to an unprepared city like Haiti. While there is nothing that we could do to control the destructive power of these natural phenomena, there are steps that we could take to limit the amount of damage."

Indeed, just this morning, April 26, the US Geological Survey recorded a 6.9 magnitude earthquake Southeast of Taiwan, only 270 kilometers away from the Philippines.

Events like these, according to National Security Adviser and Defense Chief Norberto Gonzales Jr., cannot be prevented. "There is no 100 percent preparation for a major earthquake. Probably, despite all our preparations, there will be casualties," he stated.

Tags: Manila   CNN   earthquake   7.2   Felino Palafox  
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  • micec May 02 2010 @ 11:15pm Report Abuse
    it's unpredictable when and where to occur... let's just always pray
  • Tita Aida Apr 27 2010 @ 01:27pm Report Abuse
    Norberto Gonzales said “There is no 100% preparation for a major earthquake. Probably, despite all our preparations, there will be casualties,â€Â

    Yeah, but if you follow the Chile model (long term and short term preps), casualties can at least be minimized. This guy needs to pack up now ahead of the other lame ducks in Malacanang.
  • Carla Apr 27 2010 @ 12:28pm Report Abuse
    As scary as it might sound, the results of the study aren't that shocking either.

    Ring of Fire + fault line within city + dense population + poorly built buildings + slow emergency response + lack of preparedness = _____________
  • nostradamus Apr 27 2010 @ 12:10pm Report Abuse
    This is NATURE'S WAY of CULLING the Population. Ang tigas kasi ng ulo ng simbahan at gobyerno sa population program, kaya Nature na ang manghihimasok. Dapat nga siguro mabawas-bawasan ang population natin, pumuputok na eh, hindi naman productive, puro consumers lang at pampasikip ng mundo....
  • Irene Apr 27 2010 @ 06:33am Report Abuse
    I agree with the suggestions above. Iam from Marikina. My inlaws and my own family are both from Marikina.

    Knowledge is power and Preparation is half the battle.
  • jujueyeballs Apr 26 2010 @ 08:50pm Report Abuse
    Does anyone know where I can get a copy of Mr Palafox' recommendations? We're very far from the Marikina fault line but perhaps I can adapt some suggestions and apply it to my house?

    O kaya it would be better to publish the report so that private groups can take action instead of waiting for the government? Just a suggestion.
  • igeramos Apr 26 2010 @ 06:36pm Report Abuse
    but with the per/sq km population density of metro manila, the casualty might be more.
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