How Close Are We to Running Out of Fuel in the Philippines?

(SPOT.ph) Over 400 gas stations have temporarily closed as of Friday, March 20, according to the Philippine National Police (PNP), as the oil shock tied to the Middle East conflict continues to ripple through the Philippines. With supply pressures starting to show (and fuel prices in the triple digits, no less), should we be worried?

The Department of Energy (DOE) said the current supply is enough to cover demand until the second week of May. The Bureau of Customs (BOC) also said petroleum shipments are still arriving normally, with no reported cancellations of oil shipments so far. Still, recent moves suggest government officials are not taking chances. On March 22, the Philippines temporarily allowed the limited use of dirtier fuels like Euro II to help maintain supply.

To get a clearer picture of where we’re at, DOE Secretary Sharon Garin shared during a recent press conference a snapshot of how much fuel is currently on hand as of March 20:

• Gasoline - 53.14 days

• Diesel - 45.82 days

• Kerosene - 97.93 days

• Jet fuel - 38.62 days

• Fuel oil - 61.49 days

• LPG - 23.51 days

Using this as a guide, the buffer works out to roughly May 12 for gasoline, May 4 for diesel, April 27 for jet fuel, and April 12 for LPG—assuming normal usage and no replenishment.

“We are building our buffer despite our limitations. Our team is hard at work in trying to make sure that, kahit na isa or dalawang araw 'yan, that’s an important addition para lang sigurado po na our country does not run dry,” Garin said.

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BOC Commissioner Ariel Nepomuceno said many shipments arriving now were likely sent before the war began. Since deliveries from the Middle East take 14 to 20 days or even longer, any disruption may only start showing up in the coming weeks.

That lag is why the oil industry is already trying to lock in May inventories as early as now.

Under current rules, oil companies are required to keep at least 30 days of crude oil inventory and 15 days of finished petroleum products, but she noted that they have already gone beyond those minimums as they secure additional supply.

“Supply is still sufficient. It has not arrived at an alarming level because our regulations require 15 days but so far, we have not gone down to 15 days. We are still at a comfortable level,” Garin said.

As a precaution, the government is also building its own buffer. It directed the exploration arm of the Philippine National Oil Co. to procure at least one to two million barrels from global markets. On top of that, Garin said the Philippines has already ordered 250,000 to 300,000 barrels of diesel from an undisclosed Southeast Asian country, with delivery expected this week. That sounds like a lot, but DOE also said this volume is only enough for about two days of supply.

“Because there might be risks that their source might not deliver, so the government is also procuring. So, one million or two million stocks, so we have a buffer,” Garin told ANC’s Headstart. “Just in case any of our oil companies fail to procure, we have a reserve for May. So that’s what we’re doing now. We’re slowly locking in some offers. Little by little, we’re trying to make sure that May is covered.”

The Philippines relies heavily on imported oil, especially from the Middle East. DOE said it’s now looking at other sources like Malaysia, Brunei, India, the US, Canada, Russia, and South America—but those can take longer to arrive and cost more to transport, which can also push prices up.

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Despite all this, Malacañang maintained that there is no oil crisis in the Philippines, but a crisis committee was nevertheless formed on March 23 to ensure a stable supply amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

“Sa ngayon ay hindi pa kinukonsidera na mayroon tayong oil crisis dahil kumpleto po tayo at enough po ang supply ng langis,” Palace Press Officer Claire Castro said, citing the DOE. “Nagpupursige po ang DOE at ang pamahalaang ito, sa utos na rin po ni Pangulong Marcos Jr. na hindi mapatid ang suplay ng langis o produktong petrolyo sa ating bansa.”

DOE said one thing that could drain the current supply earlier than projected is hoarding or unnecessary buying, which Garin warned could disrupt availability, especially for those who rely on fuel daily like public utility vehicles. Current stocks can last until the end of April, but panic buying could shorten that window.

“What will distort the market is if unscrupulous people hoard,” Garin said. Because of this, the government has since stepped up enforcement, with the DOE and PNP issuing show-cause orders to gas stations that are suspected of withholding fuel.

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