PH Temperatures Could Drop to 7.9°C by Early 2026: PAGASA

(SPOT.ph) We’ve gotten so used to the hellish heat in the Philippines that it’s hard to imagine temperatures in some parts of the country can still slip into single digits. The latest forecast from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) showed temperatures could plunge to 7.9°C as we enter 2026. It's not exactly winter, but it’s a chill we haven’t felt in a long time.

PAGASA Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section Chief Ana Liza said the initial cooling is already being felt this December, with temperatures in certain areas expected to drop to around 11.4°C to 14.3°C. Last December 8, Baguio City logged 13.6°C, while places like Casiguran, Aurora and Tanay, Rizal dipped to 18.2°C and 19.5°C, respectively.

Temperatures will only go down from here, with the coldest stretch forecasted between January and February 2026, which PAGASA described as the "peak season" of the amihan or northeast monsoon. During those months, PAGASA said temperatures could fall somewhere between 7.9°C and 11.8°C, particularly in the Cordillera region and other elevated locations.

“Mas bababa pa po ang ating temperature, so mas lalamig pa po sa mga susunod na weeks and months,” Solis said. “Medyo mas malamig pa at mararanasan po natin yung mga tinatawag na cold surges.”

There's also a possibility of frost in early 2026 if the cold surge becomes strong enough in the highlands. Yes, frost can actually form in the Philippines. Last January, residents of Atok, Benguet, woke up to patches of frost on vegetable plots after temperatures dipped sharply overnight, damaging crops like cabbage and lettuce.

“Possible din po yung formation ng mga frost so posibleng makaapekto sa kanilang mga pananim... so ibayo din po nating pinag-iingat ang mga kababayan natin doon,” Solis said.

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PAGASA attributed the sharper drop to the combined influence of amihan and La Niña, which Solis said may last up to six months. She explained that La Niña enhances the northeast monsoon, ushering in colder, drier air from other Asian countries. This also means a greater chance of receiving more rainfall than usual.

“Posibleng epekto nito sa rainfall pattern... mas mataas yung tiyansa na mayroon tayong matatanggap na maraming ulan,” Solis said.

Communities in traditionally cooler regions—such as the Cordilleras and parts of Northern Luzon—are advised to monitor daily forecasts, prepare for stronger cold surges, and take precautions for vulnerable groups, particularly children and the elderly.

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