Brace for "Very Strong” El Niño Until the First Half of 2027, PAGASA Warns
Extreme heat could persist, even through the ber months.
by Zoe Andin
Published on Sep 25, 2026
(SPOT.ph) The year of unpredictable weather conditions is far from over, with even the ber months offering little relief from the heat. PAGASA warned that the current El Niño could intensify to “very strong” levels between September and December 2026. It is expected to persist into the first half of 2027.
The Philippines has experienced several El Niño events in recent years, but the last very strong one was in 2015. This time, authorities warn that this coming El Niño will be worse than before, thanks to already-high global temperatures.
“Unprecedented yung warming niya. Sinasabi po namin, [on a scale of] sinat, lagnat, trangkaso, kombulsyon, yung nararanasan po na init ng temperatura natin is konbulsyon,” PAGASA’s Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section chief Ana Liza Solis illustrated during a press conference.
El Niño stems from abnormally warm sea surface temperatures in the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific and cooler-than-average ocean temperatures over the Philippine Sea.
PAGASA warns of a high likelihood of dry spells and drought, with nearly the whole country receiving less than 40% of normal rainfall by March 2027, as per the Meteorological Drought Monitor. Still, western parts of the country could see short periods of above-normal rain due to the ongoing habagat and other tropical cyclones.
Also read: PAGASA’s New Weather App Lets You Check Rain, Heat + More Before Heading Out
Watch out for heat-related illnesses, water shortages
Extremely hot weather heightens the risks of heat stroke and heat exhaustion. Symptoms include nausea, fatigue, shortness of breath, fainting spells, elevated blood pressure, and even convulsions. In fact, heat-related deaths in the Philippines could climb to 6,500 by February 2027, according to a Climate Impact Lab report.
“City dwellers are especially vulnerable because buildings and roads absorb heat during the day and release it slowly at night. This can leave older people, children, outdoor workers, people with chronic illnesses and residents of poorly ventilated housing with little opportunity to recover,” the World Meteorological Organization said in a statement.
During El Niño, the Department of Health (DOH) advises against wearing heavy, dark-colored clothing, as it can trap more heat. Opt for cool fabrics and materials like cotton. Stay hydrated with at least eight to 12 glasses of water. Heat also increases bacterial growth, so drink and use only clean, potable water.
If you have to go out, bring an umbrella, cap, or a light jacket to protect from the harsh sun—wear and reapply your sunscreen!
Unfortunately, the drought will also bring water problems, as is already happening in Camarines Norte. In more agricultural regions, this will also disrupt agricultural processes, further endangering the country’s food supply—but the Department of Agriculture (DA) said it’s prepared to manage El Niño’s effects.
At home, it’s best to start conserving water as early as now. Turn off unused faucets and have a plumber check for leaks. Store and reuse water properly for chores like cleaning.
Also read: ‘Siyam-Siyam’ in Luzon, Dangerous Heat in Mindanao: August Brings Weather Extremes to PH
Zoe thinks a lot but forgets just as much. Writing helps her deal with both problems. When she isn't writing, she spends time baking sweets, wandering around, or staring up at the moon.