Up to 11 Tropical Cyclones Could Enter PH From February to July: PAGASA

(SPOT.ph) Planning your summer trips as early as now? You might want to keep an eye on the calendar. The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said anywhere from 4 to 11 tropical cyclones could enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) between February and July.

The outlook was shared during PAGASA’s 192nd Climate Forum, where senior weather specialist Dr. Joseph Basconcillo explained that tropical cyclone activity is expected to slowly ramp up as the months go by. From February to April, the agency is forecasting either zero or just one cyclone per month, the outlook linked to a weak La Niña.

Things start to shift by May and June, when one to two tropical cyclones may affect the country each month. July is when activity is projected to pick up more noticeably, with PAGASA estimating two to four tropical cyclones during that month.

Also read: PAGASA Releases 2026 Typhoon Names in the Philippines

Rainfall patterns are also expected to change over this period. From February to April, PAGASA noted that more areas will experience a higher number of “dry days,” which PAGASA defined as days with less than one millimeter of rainfall. In contrast, more parts of the country are likely to see an increase in rainy days from May to July.

Breaking it down by region, western sections of northern and central Luzon may experience below-normal to way below-normal rainfall from February to May. Some areas in Mimaropa, Bicol, and Western Visayas are also expected to have below-normal rainfall.

PAGASA also flagged April and May as the hottest months of the period, especially in lowland Luzon, northern Luzon, and lowland Mindanao. Meanwhile, temperatures in Metro Manila will peak at 38.1°C in May.

Also read: Baha Ka Lang, Pinoy Kami: Why Are We So Good at Being Funny During Disasters?