Oscars 2025 Forecast: Who Will Win, Who Could Win, Who Should Win

(SPOT.ph) Awards shows rescheduled and voting deadlines reshuffled due to devastating wildfires. Ugly controversies hobbling Oscar campaigns. Awards bodies unable to agree on a frontrunner. Welcome to the Oscars 2025: the most chaotic—and fun!—awards season in history!

A short recap of how this season became so tumultuous: It all started back in January, when only the Golden Globes got to televise its awards (and provide the industry with a cheat sheet about who could bring home Oscar glory) before Los Angeles neighborhoods went up in flames, causing the Academy to move its nominations deadline and announcement by two weeks.

That move would prove to be fateful, because by the end of the month, controversies started hounding different films in the race, rivaling so-called October surprises in U.S. presidential elections. There was Emilia Pérez lead actress Karla Sofía Gascón firing veiled accusations at fellow nominee I’m Still Here’s Fernanda Torres, alleging “the people she works with” were doing a hit job on her and her movie. Then footage of Torres performing in blackface from the 2000s surfaced. Then The Brutalist’s editor Dávid Jancsó was quoted in an interview saying that the film had been enhanced by AI. And then Anora started getting brickbats for not using an intimacy coordinator.

But the motherlode of controversy was yet to come: Mexicans and the trans community deplored Emilia Pérez’s shoddy representation, resulting in a huge disparity between critical (72%) and audience (16%) Rotten Tomatoes scores. Then director Jacques Audiard retreated from a screening in Mexico and called Spanish the language of “modest countries, of developing countries, of the poor and migrants.” And then the piéce de resistance: Going into the final week of January, approximately three weeks before final Oscar voting, old tweets from Gascón disparaging Muslims, George Floyd, the “Afro-Korean” Oscars ceremony of 2021—and even co-star Selena Gomez—were discovered by a Canadian journalist. Not content with Netflix’s carefully worded statement, Gascón decided to do her own non-apology apology tour through social media and a non-sanctioned interview with CNN En Español. Netflix cut her off from travel and accommodation funding, essentially barring her attendance at different precursor awards and campaign events.

And as if that weren’t enough, none of the precursor bodies could agree on which film to anoint. After the Globes chose Emilia Pérez and The Brutalist, the Critics Choice went with Anora. For a while, it seemed Anora would be the fair-haired child after the Producers Guild (PGA), Directors Guild (DGA), the Writers Guild (WGA) and the Independent Spirt Awards anointed it the finest of the season. Then the British Academy of Film and Television (BAFTA) went nuts for Conclave, and soon the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) followed suit by awarding it the Best Ensemble award.

So what does all this drama tell us? One, that whoever wins best picture will do so by the skin of their teeth—there are no runaway winners like Oppenheimer or Everything Everywhere All at Once in this class of nominees. Two, the lack of consensus—or to put a more positive spin on it, the dispersed passion for many nominated films—means there is a distinct possibility that Oscars 2025 will be a “spread the love” ceremony, with many of the nominees going home with two or at most three statuettes under their belt. And three, nobody knows anything until the envelopes are opened.

With that said, let the Oscar predictions begin!

BEST PICTURE

Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
I’m Still Here
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Wicked

Who Will Win: Anora. This dramedy, about a stripper who marries a feckless Russian oligarch’s son only to join forces with the thugs who want her marriage dissolved to find him when he ditches her, has math on its side. Only Brokeback Mountain in 2006 and 1917 in 2020 won the PGA and DGA trophies and then went on to lose the Oscars. It all boils down to passion: There was passion against Brokeback Mountain from the Academy’s then-dominant older voters, there was passion for 1917’s closest rival Parasite—and Anora’s formidable showing in the guild awards indicates there is passion in the industry for it.

Who Could Win: Conclave. Anora may be too edgy and raunchy for some voters’ tastes, and Conclave has a safe, homogenized appeal. The UK contingent of Academy voters may be uniformly putting Edward Berger’s Vatican gossip thriller first place on their ballots. Still, at over 300 out of over 9,900 eligible Academy voters, their votes might not be enough.

Who Should Win: Wicked. The film adaptation of Stephen Schwartz’s beloved Broadway musical was a stirring, rip-roaring good time at the movies. Oh well, it’ll clean up at production design and costume design.

Also read: Anora Goes Where Pretty Woman Didn't Dare Walk

BEST DIRECTOR

Sean Baker, Anora
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
James Mangold, A Complete Unknown
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance

Who Will Win: Sean Baker, Anora. It’s hard to argue against precedent: Only three DGA winners in the last half-century who were also nominated at the Oscars have lost.

Who Could Win: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist. Corbet won at the Globes and BAFTA, indicating strong international support for his work. Will that be enough for an upset at the Oscars? It’s a precedent-breaking year, so there is a chance. But there is also no denying that Corbet is only in this position because Berger was snubbed by DGA.

Who Should Win: Coralie Fargeat, The Substance. I’m a horror fan, so this instant body horror classic is right up my alley. I also love the middle finger that Fargeat’s balls-to-the-wall direction shoots at the Hollywood establishment.

BEST ACTOR

Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

Who Will Win: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist. Brody has won at every precursor...

Who Could Win: Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown. ...but then he stumbled at SAG, showing that The Brutalist is not beloved within the actors’ branch. (Only Brody got a nomination there.) Will that mean Timmy wresting the record for youngest best actor Oscar winner from...Adrien Brody? Not likely. The bandwagon effect will have already worked for The Brutalist star during the voting period, and the SAG Awards, happening five days after the close of Academy Awards voting, did not influence minds and hearts. But Timmy at least established himself as a worthy competitor.

Who Should Win: Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice. His performance as the young Donald Trump was affecting enough to get a shout-out from activist and counterculture heroine Jane Fonda in her SAG Lifetime Achievement Award speech. And what a delicious f**k you to Trump if he won.

BEST ACTRESS

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Karla Sofía Gascon, Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison, Anora
Demi Moore, The Substance
Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here

Who Will Win: Demi Moore, The Substance. Best actress is a big nail-biter. Moore faced off against her closest competitor, Mikey Madison, at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice and SAG, and she prevailed at all three. Plus she’s a veteran who’s worked with practically everybody in Hollywood and never been recognized; never underestimate the power of a strong narrative at the Oscars.

Who Could Win: Mikey Madison, Anora. Still, Moore is far from invulnerable. Madison’s win at BAFTA indicates strong international support, and her victory at Independent Spirit shows indie filmmakers are behind her. But if we were to go with the Lily Gladstone (who won SAG) and Emma Stone (who snagged BAFTA) face-off from last year as a comparison, Moore has the edge for turning in a more actress-y performance (like Stone’s, who eventually won the Oscar).

Who Could Win: Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here. Nipping at both their heels is Torres, who has won only at the Globes. But late-breaking support for I’m Still Here could disrupt the proceedings. (One Oscar voter, after having watched the Brazilian political biopic, even described Torres as “a goddess.”)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Yura Borisov, Anora
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

Who Will Win: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain. Not even a clear case of category fraud has stopped the industry from enabling this sham of a victory, which has Culkin not only playing co-lead opposite Jesse Eisenberg (his face opens and closes the film, for Pete’s sake!), but also has him essentially playing a more sensitive Roman Roy.

Who Could Win: Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown. Like his filmic counterpart Pete Seeger, Norton is a veteran who has shepherded many a film to greatness with his nominated supporting turns. (This is his third, after Primal Fear and Birdman, plus a lead actor nomination for American History X.) But it’s hard to imagine anyone beating Culkin, who has won all the precursors...and even not attended some of them.

Who Should Win: Yura Borisov, Anora. I have a soft spot in my heart for Borisov’s gentle Russian gangster Igor. Making sure that Anora doesn’t get assaulted or killed, stoically taking her jabs at his masculinity, standing behind her during the moments that count...what Borisov delivered is literally the definition of a supporting role!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande, Wicked
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

Who Will Win: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez. Again, a foregone conclusion after Saldaña swept the precursors. Pundits say this is evidence that all the ugliness surrounding Emilia Pérez hasn’t tarnished Saldaña’s chances; I say it’s more evidence of the Academy being an accomplice to category fraud.

Who Could Win: Ariana Grande, Wicked. It’s inconceivable that anyone besides Saldaña is taking home this award, but if there ever could be anyone, it’s Glinda the Good (and judging by Grande’s newbie performance...Glinda the Very Good!).

Who Should Win: Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown. If we’re talking about true supporting performances here, then I would have to rule out Grande—no matter how close she is to my heart—because she is practically a co-lead in Wicked. That leaves the third musical performance in this roster: Barbaro, who proved to be an enchanting Joan Baez opposite Chalamet’s Bob Dylan.

Also read: Wicked is an Acceptable Spectacle

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

A Complete Unknown, James Mangold and Jay Cocks
Conclave, Peter Straughan
Emilia Pérez, Jacques Audiard in collaboration with Thomas Bidegain, Léa Mysius and Nicolas Livecchi
Nickel Boys, RaMell Ross & Joslyn Barnes
Sing Sing, Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar; story by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield

Who Will Win: Peter Straughan, Conclave. Finally, the University of Southern California unveiled its Scripter awardees, and the winner for film was Straughan’s adaptation of Robert Harris’ papal intrigue drama. Apart from winning all the precursors in its category (apart from WGA, where it was deemed ineligible), that is the final seal of approval for Straughan’s script.

Who Could Win: RaMell Ross & Joslyn Barnes, Nickel Boys. Ross & Barnes’ adaptation of Colson Whitehead’s Pulitzer prize-winning novel took home the WGA for adapted screenplay. But that’s all the fight it has in it.

Who Should Win: Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar; story by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield, Sing Sing. My heart still bleeds that A24 botched the Oscar rollout for this deeply stirring and inspiring prison drama about the transforming powers of art.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Anora, Sean Baker
The Brutalist, Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold
A Real Pain, Jesse Eisenberg
September 5, Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum; co-written by Alex David
The Substance, Coralie Fargeat

Who Will Win: A Real Pain, Jesse Eisenberg. In an already murky year, this category is one of the cloudiest. WGA went for Anora in a category that saw three other Oscar competitors deemed ineligible. Throw in a Critics Choice victory for The Substance, and BAFTA and Independent Spirit awards for A Real Pain, and we have a certified nail-biter. In a year where precedents are likely to be shattered, I’m giving the slight edge to A Real Pain for a script that is really all talk.

Who Could Win: Anora, Sean Baker. Anora did square off against A Real Pain in WGA, though, and prevailed, burnishing its status as an industry overperformer. But in the spirit of spreading the love, I’m giving A Real Pain two-for-two in its nominations.

Who Should Win: Anora, Sean Baker. Apart from Wicked, Anora is my favorite for the year.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
The Wild Robot

Who Will Win: The Wild Robot. After an early stumble at the Golden Globes, The Wild Robot rebounded with a victory at Critics Choice and then swept all the categories it was nominated for at the Annies, the industry award for animated movies. (Let’s discount the home advantage of Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl’s win at BAFTA.) Plus director Chris Sanders is on his fourth nomination—tied for most of all time—but is still looking for his first win. It might be time to reward him.

Who Could Win: Flow. But don’t count out the scrappy cat and his anthropomorphic friends. Flow won an early victory at the Globes, then won its own category for independent animated feature at the Annies. It is also nominated for best international feature film, indicating strong support from the international contingent.

Who Should Win: Flow. If we’re being honest, The Wild Robot and Flow have many striking similarities in their aesthetic. But I’m siding with Flow: Not only did it render its gorgeous animation at a fraction of The Wild Robot’s budget, it delivered its message of community in the face of environmental degradation with no dialogue!

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

I’m Still Here, Brazil
The Girl with the Needle, Denmark
Emilia Pérez, France
The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Germany
Flow, Latvia

Who will win: I’m Still Here, Brazil. Emilia Pérez won this category at the Globes, Critics Choice and BAFTA. But, again, in the spirit of breaking precedent, I’m going to argue that even with a field-storming 13 nominations—and low turnout for this year’s nominations voting shows that the bar is lower for getting a nomination—the controversies surrounding Emilia Pérez now has an ick factor surrounding a vote for the film itself. Which leaves the race open for the other best picture contender in this category: I’m Still Here has been enjoying a surge in word-of-mouth praise ever since Sony Pictures Classics’ formidable campaign machine made it available to voters, and acclaim for Fernanda Torres’ performance may carry this film over the finish line for voters who want to reward her somewhere else.

Who could win: Emilia Pérez, France. Still, those precursors are a factor to contend with. The international contingent has shown that it has no compunctions about rewarding this deeply problematic film, and that issues like racism and trans ignorance carry less weight abroad than it does in liberal Hollywood.

Disney+ is streaming the 97^th Academy Awards live from the Dolby Theatre on Monday morning, March 3, local Philippine time. The event kicks off with the red carpet at 7:30 a.m., with the awards ceremony following at 8:00 a.m.