How Bam Aquino Placed Second in the 2025 Midterm Elections
Survey after survey showed him outside the Magic 12.
(SPOT.ph) None of the nationwide surveys saw it coming. That Bam Aquino would break into the Magic 12—let alone place second—was something even the opposition could only hope for. But as of 10:54 a.m. on May 13, partial unofficial results from the COMELEC show Aquino with 16.8 million votes.
“Very, very surprised. Siyempre masaya, but sobrang unexpected nito. We had a good feeling pasok kami, pero ‘yung ganito kataas hindi namin ine-expect,” Aquino told reporters. His camp's expectation was only to land anywhere between the 6th and 10th place. So how did this happen?
According to TV5 Chief Election Analyst Edson Guido, the former senator behind the Universal Access to Quality Tertiary Education Act and the Go Negosyo Act won where it mattered most.
“Nakuha niya itong pinakaimportante na Lingayen-Lucena Corridor,” Guido said.
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Why is the Lingayen-Lucena Corridor important?
This corridor stretches from Lingayen in Pangasinan to Lucena in Quezon, covering Pangasinan, Central Luzon, National Capital Region (NCR), and Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, and Quezon (CALABARZON). Together, these areas account for approximately 40% of the country's registered voters, making it the most vote-rich region in the Philippines.
It’s also one of the most urbanized parts of the country. Unlike in rural provinces where local leaders can influence “command votes,” the Lingayen-Lucena Corridor is filled with what political strategist Antonio Gatmaitan in 2003 called “market voters”—people who tend to vote independently, guided more by media, debates, and public image. That’s why this area is often seen as a real battleground in the elections.
“That is how crucial the Lingayen-Lucena Corridor is,” Guido said.
There, Aquino received a whopping 9.5 million votes—a wide lead over second-placer Bong Go with 7.9 million and third-placer Kiko Pangilinan with 6.9 million. A big part of that came from NCR, where he got 3.2 million votes, and CALABARZON, where he did even better with 3.5 million votes. “Doon pa lang, halos 10 million votes na si Bam Aquino.”
A clean sweep for Bam Aquino
To put that in perspective, Guido pointed out that Aquino, with just his votes from the corridor, was already close to matching the national vote count of 11th-placer Lito Lapid, who has 11 million votes.
“It’s a clean sweep in Region 3, Region 4A, and NCR—tatlo sa pinakamaraming rehistradong botante,” Guido said. In Metro Manila, Aquino secured the votes in major cities like Quezon City and Manila. “Karamihan ng lugar sa Metro Manila ay si Bam Aquino nakakuha ng number one spot.”
Even in Mindanao, a region long considered a Duterte stronghold, Aquino still managed to earn 2.2 million votes.
“Puro PDP-Laban ang Mindanao, pero Bam Aquino was at a respectable 14th place with 2.2 million votes. Napakarami pa rin niyang boto,” Guido said.
Aquino also acknowledged a wave of last-minute endorsements from influential groups like Iglesia ni Cristo (INC), Jesus Is Lord (JIL), and Bangsamoro groups Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) that contributed to his win.
“Big groups na solid voters ‘yun, malaking bagay ‘yun,” Aquino said.
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