Is It Already the Start of Rainy Season? Here's What PAGASA Says
At this point, it's hard to tell if we're wet with rain or sweat.
(SPOT.ph) It's been raining a lot lately, which feels unusual for a month that's supposed to be the hottest, driest time in the Philippines. We're wet from both rain and sweat. What gives?
Despite the frequent rains, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) hasn’t officially declared the start of the rainy season just yet. Instead, what we’re seeing is the country’s slow but steady transition to it.
Earlier this month, PAGASA Administrator Nathaniel Servando told The Manila Times that the signs are all there—“that the rainy season is fast approaching.” He estimates the official onset could happen anytime between the third week of May and the second week of June.
From May 16 to 19, scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are expected to persist across the country, according to the May 15 weather forecast from PAGASA Weather Specialist Grace Castañeda. It will still be hot during midday, but isolated showers and even thunderstorms are likely to roll in by late afternoon or evening.
“Itong mga pag-ulan na ito ay maaaring tumagal mula 30 minutes hanggang dalawang oras. Kahit hindi katagalan ang ulan, posible pa rin itong maging katamtaman hanggang malakas, lalo na during severe thunderstorms kaya mag-ingat pa rin po tayo,” Castañeda said.
How PAGASA determines the start of rainy season
According to PAGASA, the declaration of the rainy season requires two specific criteria: (1) there has to be rainfall for five straight days, with each day recording at least 25 millimeters at seven out of the 13 monitoring stations across Luzon and Visayas and (2) there has to be a shift in the dominant wind direction where prevailing winds should come from the west (south-southwest, southwest, west-southwest, west, west-northwest). That shift signals the arrival of habagat.
As of now, none of these has happened yet.
Typically, the rainy season in the Philippines begins in early June and lasts until October, but variations can occur due to factors as the El Niño or La Niña phenomena. Last January, PAGASA noted that La Niña conditions were present in the tropical Pacific, which led to the above-normal rainfall from January to March.
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