Oscars 2024 Nominations Forecast: The Movies, Actors, Directors Who Will Get Academy's Nod

(SPOT.ph) Oscar nominations are set to be announced this Tuesday night and I’m sure of one thing: If 2023 was all about Barbenheimer, the same will likely hold true for the Oscars. But where audience sentiment crowned Barbie the winner by giving Greta Gerwig’s comedy the title of highest-grossing movie of the year, the Academy will probably award Oppenheimer in its top-line categories and banish the “lightweight” plastic doll to the technical categories. Comedy just cannot get any respect from Oscar; he usually reserves his admiration for “serious” biopics about tortured white geniuses. (Like Maestro, a.k.a. “Where Is Lydia Tár When You Need Her”.)

Also read: Surviving a Saltburn Screening Is All the Craze on TikTok—But Is It Really That Shocking?

Oscars 2024 forecast: Who will get the nod?

In keeping with its push to help the movies recover from COVID, the Academy is certain to fill all 10 slots for Best Picture (unlike in pre-COVID years when only eight or nine slots were usually filled). The Academy also has an increasingly international membership profile, so bet on two global titles to get into the nominees’ circle of 10: it can choose from the compelling mishmash of Scenes from a Marriage and Law and Order from writer-director Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall, and German-language Holocaust drama The Zone of Interest. There's also Celine Song’s remarkable Korean-language debut Past Lives.

Predicted Best Picture nominees:

American Fiction

Anatomy of a Fall

Barbie

The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Past Lives

Poor Things

The Zone of Interest

While the Directors Guild of America tried to counteract its “old boys’ club” image by nominating Greta Gerwig this year, I’m going to be cynical and bet that Oscar (whose directors’ branch membership is more elistist than the DGA’s) will buck the Directors Guild’s independent thinking by declaring that, once again, only comedies directed by men have a shot.

Also read: Beyond Barbie: Why Greta Gerwig Is So Much More Than Her Pink Movie

Predicted Best Director nominees:

Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest

Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things

Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Alexander Payne, The Holdovers

Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

Over at the lead actor race, The Holdovers (a.k.a. Dead Poets Society Meets The Breakfast Club) has been getting a lot of love from the precursor awards, so I suspect Cillian Murphy shouldn’t be buying metal polish for that Oscar trophy just yet. In other news, look for Colman Domingo to be the first LGBTQ actor to score a nomination for playing an LGBTQ role. And just to hedge my bets a little, don’t be surprised if Leonardo DiCaprio sneaks in for playing a scheming simpleton in Killers of the Flower Moon.

Predicted Best Actor nominees:

Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Colman Domingo, Rustin

Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

Lead actress is a stacked competition this year, with Greta Lee delivering what is practically a tour de force debut performance in Past Lives, Annette Bening swimming her heart out in the otherwise basic Nyad, and Natalie Portman finally finding a perfect role that fits her studied acting methods in May December. But in a replay of last year’s Cate Blanchett versus Michelle Yeoh match-up, this year is going to be about Emma Stone entering the ring against Lily Gladstone.

Predicted Best Actress nominees:

Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall

Carey Mulligan, Maestro

Margot Robbie, Barbie

Emma Stone, Poor Things

My biggest heartbreak in the supporting actor category will be Charles Melton failing to get into the nominees’ circle for May December. Despite being one of the year’s best, the film is just not catching fire, and with a disheartening snub from the Screen Actors Guild and BAFTA, Melton’s momentum seems to be flagging. But this category promises a Barbenheimer showdown with Robert Downey Jr. and Ryan Gosling both making the cut.

Also read: Is the Barbenheimer Experience Worth the Brain Cell Tax?

Predicted Best Supporting Actor nominees:

Willem Dafoe, Poor Things

Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon

Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Will Sandra Hüller score double acting nominations in one year a la Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story and Jojo Rabbit), Emma Thompson (Remains of the Day and In the Name of the Father), Sigourney Weaver (Gorillas in the Mist and Working Girl), and Julianne Moore (Far from Heaven and The Hours) with her supporting turn in The Zone of Interest? I highly doubt it. And speaking of Moore, I wouldn’t be surprised if Oscar threw us a curveball by nominating her deliciously devious turn in May December. Another curveball? Oscar snubbing underperforming musical The Color Purple entirely by overlooking Danielle Brooks’ firebrand Sofia, a role originated by Oprah Winfrey.

Predicted Best Supporting Actress nominees:

Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

America Ferrera, Barbie

Jodie Foster, Nyad

Julianne Moore, May December

Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

The screenplay categories have always been close to my heart, if only because writing for film usually goes under-recognized. In original screenplay, I’m rooting for May December’s gorgeous satire, but thanks to Barbie getting bumped to adapted, I’m also betting that Emerald Fennell’s buzzy Saltburn gets in. (Better Saltburn than Maestro, where characters tend to recite their curriculum vitae at each other.)

Predicted Best Original Screenplay nominees:

Anatomy of a Fall, Justine Triet and Arthur Harari

The Holdovers, David Hemingson

May December, Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik

Past Lives, Celine Song

Saltburn, Emerald Fennell

Barbie getting shunted off to adapted screenplay means goodbye to any Oscar chances at winning in this category, thanks to another race freighted with heavy (and high-minded) competition. My most undeserving nominee? Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer, who has Robert Downey Jr.’s villain explaining his scheme to discredit the movie’s hero a few feet away from a Senate investigation. Oh brother.

Predicted Best Adapted Screenplay nominees:

American Fiction, Cord Jefferson (based on the novel Erasure by Percival Everett)

Barbie, Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach (based on Barbie by Mattel)

Killers of the Flower Moon, Eric Roth and Martin Scorsese (based on the book by David Grann)

Oppenheimer, Christopher Nolan (based on American Prometheus by Kai Bird and Martin J. Sherwin)

Poor Things, Tony McNamara (based on the book by Alasdair Gray)

Animated feature is a great category this year because it boasts many entries close to my heart. Do I root for Hayao Miyazaki’s The Boy and the Heron, filled with callbacks from the master’s past hits? The manic energy of Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse? The sweet earnestness of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem? Maybe I’ll sing the praises of the always-charming claymation antics of the folks at Aardman, whose Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget will probably not make the cut, but should.

Predicted Best Animated Feature nominees:

The Boy and the Heron

Elemental

Nimona

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

Thanks to France making the bone-headed decision to not designate Anatomy of a Fall as its official submission for international feature, this category is The Zone of Interest’s for the taking. Not to worry, though: France knows its culinary mystique is always good for a nomination, and that’s what The Taste of Things has in spades. A surge in Netflix’s Top 10 movies lists all over the world could give Spain’s Society of the Snow a boost against Interest, but the big issue is how heavily weighted European entries are in this category. Unless Japan’s Perfect Days kicks Germany’s The Teacher’s Lounge out of the top five (the war in Ukraine is too close a cause to Hollywood’s liberal heart), all the nominees will be coming from the West.

Predicted Best International Feature nominees:

20 Days in Mariupol, Ukraine

Society of the Snow, Spain

The Taste of Things, France

The Teacher’s Lounge, Germany

The Zone of Interest, United Kingdom